The read
Model: GS by 6.9 · 241.1 total
Spread
MIA +7.5
0.6 pt edge
Game total
Over 235.5
5.6 pt edge
MIA total
Over 114.5
2.6 pt edge
GS total
Over 121.5
2.5 pt edge
Moneyline lean GS. Model against the spread this season: 50-55 (48%).
The situation
MIALast 5: 3-2Back to backRoad game 3 in a row338 mi travel3-5 record
GSLast 5: 5-02 days restHome game 4 in a row5-3 recordWon 5 straight4 out: Santos, III, Porzingis…
Tale of the tape
118
117.5
47.2%
45.5%
33.5%
38.9%
13
16.1
73.9%
81.8%
19.5
21.9
10.6
14.5
32.5
29.2
29.5
26.8
14.8
15.9
8.4
8.9
5.1
3.9
20.8
22.1
118.2
115
47.3%
45.0%
34.5%
39.9%
12.5
17.8
78.0%
83.5%
21.2
20.2
9.8
14
33.5
29
30.2
27.2
14.5
15.5
8.8
8.8
5.5
4.5
20.2
22
Points, recent
Last 3: 126.3 vs 117.3Last 5: 123.4 vs 121Last 10: 118 vs 117.5
Projected lineups
Season per-game averages
Miami Heat
| Pos | Player | PTS | REB | AST | FG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PG | Davion Mitchell | 15 | 1 | 8 | 54% |
| SG | Klay Thompson | 14 | 1 | 1 | 42% |
| SF | Andrew Wiggins | 9 | 2 | 1 | 41% |
| PF | Giannis Antetokounmpo | 28 | 12 | 5 | 56% |
| C | Bam Adebayo | 18 | 8 | 3 | 50% |
Golden State Warriors
| Pos | Player | PTS | REB | AST | FG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PG | Stephen Curry | 30 | 4 | 4 | 52% |
| SG | Brandin Podziemski | 14 | 4 | 4 | 39% |
| SF | Will Richard | 4 | 2 | 0 | 32% |
| PF | Yaxel Lendeborg | 21 | 7 | 3 | 50% |
| C | Draymond Green | 2 | 4 | 5 | 35% |
Recent games
MIA
- W11/04@ Los Angeles Clippers 117-116
- L11/02@ Los Angeles Lakers 117-138
- W10/30vs Indiana Pacers 145-125
- W10/28@ Atlanta Hawks 129-117
- L10/26vs Dallas Mavericks 109-113
- L10/24@ Charlotte Hornets 110-115
- L10/23vs Detroit Pistons 111-128
- L10/21vs Minnesota Timberwolves 106-131
GS
- W11/02vs Phoenix Suns 116-113
- W11/01vs Los Angeles Clippers 124-112
- W10/30vs Los Angeles Lakers 112-95
- W10/28@ Minnesota Timberwolves 119-114
- W10/26@ Denver Nuggets 134-114
- L10/24@ Phoenix Suns 122-131
- L10/23vs Memphis Grizzlies 108-111
- L10/21@ Los Angeles Lakers 105-127
Injury report
Latest update Nov 05, 2026
MIA
Nobody listed.
GS
-
OutGui SantosNov 05
Santos (knee) has been ruled out for Thursday's game against the Heat.
-
OutJimmy Butler IIIOct 16
Butler (knee) could return sometime between January and February as he continues recovering from a torn right ACL, Anthony Slater of…
-
OutKristaps PorzingisNov 04
The Warriors have stopped issuing salary payments to Porzingis, who remains away from the team and is considering retirement, Anthony…
-
OutMoses MoodyOct 16
Moody (knee) is progressing toward a potential return between December and January after rupturing his left patellar tendon in March,…
Quarters & race to
| Per game | 1st Q | 2nd Q | 3rd Q | 4th Q | Paint |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | 31.1 | 29.3 | 26 | 30.4 | 52.3 |
| GS | 26.6 | 30 | 32.5 | 28.4 | 43.3 |
First to 10 / 15 this season
| MIA | GS | |
|---|---|---|
| First to 10, Q1 | 3 of 8 38% | 2 of 8 25% |
| First to 10, Q2 | 4 of 8 50% | 3 of 8 38% |
| First to 10, Q3 | 4 of 8 50% | 3 of 8 38% |
| First to 10, Q4 | 5 of 8 62% | 8 of 8 100% |
| First to 15, Q1 | 3 of 8 38% | 2 of 8 25% |
| First to 15, Q2 | 5 of 8 62% | 4 of 8 50% |
| First to 15, Q3 | 3 of 8 38% | 4 of 8 50% |
| First to 15, Q4 | 4 of 8 50% | 5 of 8 62% |